Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 93864.130082 98966.670395 104066.048362 109541.237012 115250.059890 121023.496521 127300.107858
2025-10-05 86095.033888 93947.839797 102012.051793 110901.870687 120416.190876 130282.877330 141277.787539
2025-10-12 80647.036778 90420.484559 100673.364250 112209.633685 124806.460194 138121.728413 153238.339692
2025-10-19 76102.170997 87295.936891 99250.741632 112932.949058 128122.278967 144430.886424 163227.918498
2025-10-26 72027.403740 84306.865119 97629.349724 113105.509581 130534.999359 149502.837270 171650.048370
2025-11-02 68745.436813 81943.362967 96466.334949 113562.702895 133063.859002 154540.060579 179902.826041
2025-11-09 65608.605499 79539.698195 95071.839514 113581.534885 134942.950838 158724.295981 187100.681946
2025-11-16 63521.696703 78208.480991 94779.681532 114747.705900 138035.793530 164215.179138 195741.837984
2025-11-23 60931.294319 76153.203445 93527.779395 114688.678357 139618.233409 167904.102854 202267.075685
2025-11-30 59484.200486 75366.642899 93686.257262 116214.480453 142996.814225 173638.511467 211155.484394
2025-12-07 57876.127435 74305.288082 93448.438921 117208.902906 145702.788499 178562.260308 219094.749700
2025-12-14 55866.442069 72672.106293 92451.197847 117226.538616 147192.042909 182017.650101 225287.688762
2025-12-21 53999.534574 71165.695177 91570.890348 117362.420299 148819.941454 185658.583246 231754.915930
2025-12-28 53094.653217 70811.846125 92063.703615 119146.576798 152430.871791 191676.834819 241098.862659
2026-01-04 52094.847467 70294.016142 92318.138026 120610.180308 155637.617017 197213.654600 249892.175273
2026-01-11 50829.801881 69391.028768 92052.325700 121394.559074 157987.950959 201707.647317 257437.626321
2026-01-18 49355.234949 68168.346083 91340.350540 121581.399333 159569.252240 205249.252471 263825.534348
2026-01-25 48102.040521 67187.239671 90894.004477 122067.281551 161496.970762 209203.036946 270723.534812
2026-02-01 46704.127619 65972.107431 90109.059688 122087.444450 162813.186471 212388.040628 276675.690487
2026-02-08 45918.673292 65533.014779 90294.162426 123324.620357 165652.118128 217461.118244 284984.648860
2026-02-15 44607.956214 64357.050017 89491.724160 123262.013087 166819.638699 220441.512891 290694.759198
2026-02-22 44074.543979 64200.389523 89998.832760 124880.473294 170128.596949 226112.213458 299795.752795
2026-03-01 43332.369826 63737.210621 90084.034539 125935.162171 172708.725043 230872.897643 307778.346284